SHORT SALE SPECIALIST REALTOR – BALTIMORE MD PRE-FORECLOSURE HELP

People talk about the national housing market like it’s some static thing, like a toaster.  The thing is, there is no national housing market.  Just like there is no national weather forecast.  That doesn’t mean national averages don’t have their place, but you don’t grab a raincoat and an umbrella in Miami based on the weather in Seattle.  Like the weather, all real estate is local.  As we embark on the fourth and final quarter of 2011, let’s take a look at our local forecast.

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region decreased 18.3 percent o 13,489.  Pending Sales were up 14.6 percent to 8,840.  Inventory levels shrank 17.7 percent to 56,907 units, a positive supply-side trend that should bring additional stability.

Prices were still soft.  The Median Sales Price decreased 3.4 percent to $256,000.  Days on Market increased 16.3 percent to 95 days.  Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 14.9 percent to 6.5 months.

A dash of uplifting economic news was overshadowed by debt clouds from the ongoing turmoil in Greece and the threat of bank contagion.  Manufacturing activity, construction spending and overall job growth all picked up in September, temporarily calming fears of the dreaded double-dip storm.  As for the lending climate, the Fed’s recent “Operation Twist” helped push mortgage rates to record lows – under 4.0 percent for the first time ever.  Despite the cheap money, “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!” should still be the battle cry.

Market-Indicators-September-2011

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Despite some choppy waters in August, there have been noteworthy shifts on both sides of the closing table.  Buyer activity is moving back in line with historical trends while sellers are making fewer concessions in order to sell their homes.  Falling supply and improving absorption rates in many regions also suggest that market balance is realigning towards neutral.  Locally, a few indicators posted positive movement over August 2010, but do the rest of the numbers provide reason for optimism?

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region decreased 17.7 percent to 13,268.  Pending Sales were up 21.7 percent to 10,127.  Inventory levels shrank 15.9 percent to 58,620 units, dampening any potential oversupply issue down the road.

Prices were fairly stable.  The Median Sales Price decreased 1.8 percent to $275,000.  Days on Market increased 13.0 percent to 86 days.  Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 11.6 percent to 6.7 months.

The economy bobbed along just this side of positive in August.  Consumer confidence, which often affects housing demand, showed some slack even as personal income and spending both increased modestly.  Low interest rates, declining supply and stabilizing prices are beacons of hope in the harbor, but the recovery still needs wind in its sails.

Market-Indicators-August-2011

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At the height of summer, we’re finally beginning to move beyond comparisions to the 2010 incentive market.  Even so, sudden changes in sales volumes are likely due to factors occurring at this time last year.  Qualified buyers may find more attractive opportunities now than during either of the recent tax credits.  Interest rates should hold their ground arond five percent, though the shift in the federal credit rating could change that.  Some indicators suggest improving conditions, but let’s see just how we’re faring locally.

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region decreased 19.6 percent to 14,305.  Pending Sales were up 23.8 percent to 10,425.  Inventory levels shrank 13.1 percent to 59,622 units, but consumers are still finding terrific opportunities.  Strong affordability is partly driving purchase demand.

Prices softened a bit.  The Median Sales Price declined 2.5 percent to $278,000.  Days on Market increased 18.1 percent to 84 days.  Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 6.6 percent to 6.8 months.

Second quarter GDP growth was just 1.3 percent after a meager 0.4 percent gain in the first quarter.  We added 117,000 new jobs in July, a stronger gain than expected after an embarrassing June.  Even though a budget deal has been reached, several challenges persist.  Changes to Fannie, Freddie and the mortgage interest deduction are still in play.  As conumers absorb distressed inventory and labor market conditions improve, the wheels of recovery grind on.

Market-Indicators-July-2011

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You may have noticed some “noise” lately about where the market is heading. Some accounts are optimistic while others, well, aren’t. The good news is that local data provides a more reliable tone than national sound bites can offer. When it comes to hearing the market’s true message, it may not necessarily be from the expected indicators, it may not be heard evenly across all segments and it may arrive in disjointed bursts. Let’s listen.

Buyers in the Washington D.C. region absorbed homes more quickly as Months Supply of Inventory was down 2.4 percent to 6.9 months. New Listings decreased 11.1 percent to 16,319. Pending Sales were up 29.2 percent to 11,671. Inventory levels shrank 11.2 percent to 59,759 units, but even choosy buyers can still find top-notch homes. 

Prices were more or less stable. The Median Sales Price increased 1.8 percent to $285,000. Days on Market increased 15.5 percent to 84 days. Affordability also improved.

On the national front, the interest rate dropped to 4.79 percent on a 30-year fixed conventional and 4.44 percent for FHA. The unemployment rate has been stable around 9.0 percent and initial unemployment claims have continued to fall. Wages and payroll jobs are also improving slowly. Debt ceiling negotiations and other background noises persist, while prolonged job growth is still the missing verse in the recovery song.

Market-Indicators-June-2011

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Homeownership is about painting a room fluorescent fuchsia without asking anyone’s permission.  The recent market challenges have forced some homeowners to become begrudging renters or unintentional landlords.  For the nation as a whole, the National Association of REALTORS reports that the homeownership rate has shifted from 69.0 percent in 2005 to 66.5 percent so far in 2011.  While that’s not a tectonic shift, let’s see what other indicators reveal since that first fateful month after the 2010 tax credit.

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region increased 1.2 percent to 17,194.  Pending Sales were up 55.7 percent to 12,168.  Inventory levels shrank 9.6 percent to 59,029 units, but there are still plenty of great choices out there.

Prices were more or less stable.  The Median Sales Price increased 0.6 percent to $269,000.  Days on Market increased 18.5 percent to 88 days.  The rate of inventory absorption slowed as Months Supply of Inventory was up 4.9 percent to 7.0 months.  Affordability also improved.

Nationally, the interest rate dropped to 4.88 percent on a 30-year fixed conventional while the unemployment rate snuck up to 9.1 percent in May.  The economy added 54,000 jobs, which was far less than April and insufficient to curb unemployment.  As recovery goes, so goes positive trends.  Several metrics should continue to show favorable movement, but stronger job growth is needed to fuel housing demand and reinforce consumer confidence.

Market-Indicators-May-2011

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The final month of year-over-year comparison to last year’s tax incentive market is upon us.  It bears repeating that April 2010 enjoyed uniquely strong activity due to the approaching credit deadline.  Let’s see how this pivotal month played out locally.

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region decreased 24.1 percent to 18,397.  Pending Sales were down 17.6 percent to 11,838.  Inventory level shrank to 9.4 percent to 56,536 units – a positive trend that should preerve market balance.

Prices were more or less stable.  The Median Sales Price declined 2.9 percent to $252,200.  Days on Market increased 24.8 percent to 99 days.  The supply-demand balance improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 2.1 percent to 6.4 months.

Nationally, the interest rate is 5.0 percent on a 30-year fixed conventional and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent in April, even as the economy added 244,000 jobs.  Job seekers showed more confidence, a potential indicator of future housing demand.  Moving forward, expect a different story to unfold in our market.  We’ll soon be comparing current activity to a post-credit slump that occurred during the summer and fall of 2010.

Market-Indicators-Apr-2011

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This month’s numbers are stuck in the shadow of the spring 2010 incentive market.  A number of factors hinder a full-scale housing recovery, yet there are positives that suggest improving consumer confidence.  Slowing unemployment claims, strong corporate balance sheets and 13 months of private job growth are cause for long-dormant optimism.  Let’s see if our local glass is half empty or half full.

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region decreased 19.1 percent from last March to 18,496 new homes.  Pending Sales increased 2.4 percent to land at 12,452 contracts written.  As a result, inventory levels decreased 5.7 percent from last year to reach 54,485 active listings.

Prices lost some ground – the March Median Sales Price of $245,000 decreased 2.0 percent.  Negotiations moved toward buyers as Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale decreased 2.5 percent to 91.9 percent.  The market moved toward balance as Months Supply of Inventory decreased to 6.1 months.

The national interest rate is 5.11 percent on a 30-year fixed; the national unemployment rate dropped to 8.8 percent in March.  Several important changes to the mortgage industry are on the horizon.  Ensuring access to adequate mortgage captial for qualified buyers is key to housing recovery.  This will require substantial reforms to Fannie and Freddie.

Market-Indicators-Mar-2011

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Market activity may appear to be low in year-over-year comparisons due to the 2010 tax credit.  We knew this was coming.  Several other themes warrant attention beore we dig into the numbers.  First, we’ve had several months in a row of private job growth.  Second, interest rates, in concert with food and energy costs, are rising.  Third, the anticipation of rising rates often motivates buyers.  A recovery looms.  Now, let’s take a look at those numbers.

New Listings in the Washington D.C. region increased 2.1 percent from last February to 12,885 new homes.  Meanwhile, Pending Sales increased 32.3 percent to arrive at 9,718 contracts written.  This meant inventory levels decreased 4.6 percent from last year to reach 54,760 active listings.

Prices slid a bit – the February Median Sales Price of $235,500 decreased 5.8 percent.  Negotiations moved toward buyers as Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale decreased 2.7 percent to 91.4 percent.  The absorption rate increased 0.8 percent as Months Supply of Inventory checked in at 6.2 months.

The national average interest rate was 5.23 percent on a 30-year fixed.  The U.S. government would like to play second fiddle to the private sector in the mortgage market.  Shifting the risk burden makes fiscal sense but could threaten an already fragile recovery.  The Center for Responsible Lending states that it would take 14 years for the typical American family to save enough money for a 20 percent down payment, based on national average home prices.

Market-Indicators-Feb-2011

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A house. It’s the single largest investment most families make. It’s where we rest our heads every night. Houses represents the brick and mortar that comprise the very communities in which we live. They provide us with a sense of place to extend our roots downward. We raise our families under the safety and warmth of their rooftops. Our houses become homes. Let’s analyze these structures that are so much more than that, and let’s take a look at how our home market began 2011.

Pending Sales in the MRIS region increased 13.1 percent since January 2010 to 8,654 agreements signed. New Listing activity declined by 15.7 percent, which means sellers placed 12,700 new homes on the market. At this rate, they should expect their properties to seller after approximately 97 days.

Prices declined slightly. The January Median Sales Price dipped by 2.9 percent from last January to $238,000. Negotiations moved toward buyers as Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale fell to 91.4 percent. Months Supply of Inventory grew 3.5 percent to 6.3 months.

Interest rates are expected to remain around 5 percent and prices are expected to rise gradually in many markets. Although the labor department reported that the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 9.0 percent in January, expect joblessness to remain an issue. There’s a steep, jagged rock face behind us; ahead lies a gently inclined grassy plain.

Market-Indicators-Jan-2011

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While there’s no shortage of uncertainty regarding what 2011 will bring, one thing is certain: 2010 was yet another “transition year.” Patience is running thin during this painstakingly slow recovery.  According to closely watched indices, national home sales hit bottom in the first quarter of 2009 and prices followed suit shortly thereafter.  As the bull gets set to wrestle the bear to the groud in 2011, let’s take a look at how we concluded 2010.

Pending Sales in the MRIS region increased 19.7 percent since December 2009 to arrive at 7,342 contracts written.  Meanwhile, New Listings decreased 1.5 percent to 9,957 new homes.  Total Active Listings were down 1.3 percent from year-ago levels to weigh in at 60,025.

Prices grained some groud.  Median Sales Price increased 0.3 percent versus last December, checking in at $260,838.  Market times increased 6.5 percent and are now at 91 days.  Months Supply of Inventory increased 3.4 percent to 6.8 months.

You might have noticed that interest rates are stealthily ticking upwards.  Yes, higher rates are expected in 2011 as we press toward a more durable recovery.  This recovery is hinged upon continued labor market growth coupled with supply-side and demand-side housing market improvements.  This wet, windowless basement of a recession has been cold and daunting, but a neon exit sign beckons from our periphery.

Market-Indicators-Dec-2010

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